eau_afrique

Afrique: L’émergence des classes moyennes n’a rien changé

Lu par 4057 Boytown

L’émergence des classes moyennes avait fait espérer à une embellie démocratique sur le continent. Mais on a crié victoire trop vite.

Depuis une dizaine d’années, l’Afrique connaît un taux de croissance oscillant autour de 5%.

Cinquante ans après la publication du fameux ouvrage de Réné Dumont, L’Afrique noire est mal partie, voilà un chiffre qui a de quoi réjouir. Un espoir, en grande partie, fondé sur l’émergence d’une classe moyenne.

Sur une population d’1milliard d’habitants, la Banque africaine de développement (BAD) estime que 300 millions de personnes appartiennent à cette catégorie.

«Les Chinois parlent de petite prospérité, cette expression définit peut-être aussi le mieux les classes moyennes africaines. La grande prospérité, elle, celle des Black Diamonds sud-africains par exemple, concerne moins de 13 millions de personnes», explique Hélène Quénot-Suarez, du programme Afrique subsaharienne de l’Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI).

Les classes moyennes, c’est quoi?

«On parle de classes moyennes pour définir un individu sorti de la logique de survie, qui a gagné son autonomie: il peut se nourrir, se loger, et accumuler un capital, même s’il s’agit de vingt centimes d’euros par jour. Mais il faut faire attention, pour savoir de quoi on parle, à contextualiser: selon la BAD, avec vingt euros par jour en Afrique, on est sorti de la survie. Avec la même somme aux Etats-Unis, on est à la limite de la pauvreté», ajoute la chercheuse.

Parler de classes moyennes, en Afrique, c’est parler d’une population hétérogène. La BAD fixe des catégories très fines.

La global middle class, c’est-à-dire, définie selon le contexte mondial, ne représente en Afrique que 0,3% de la population. La upper (de 10 à 20 dollars par jour), 4,70 %. Et la lower (4 à 10 dollars par jour), 8,74%.

Surtout, c’est, à plus de 20%, une classe flottante, avec un budget de 2 à 4 dollars par jour, qui peut retomber à tout moment dans la précarité.

Voilà une faille de taille dans le raisonnement du cercle vertueux: la grande majorité de cette catégorie est fragile, et il apparaît aujourd’hui difficile de s’appuyer sur elle, sur le long terme, pour espérer une croissance à des niveaux toujours aussi élevés.

Fers de lance de la démocratisation?

Outre qu’elles ne sont pas nécessairement un vecteur sûr de la croissance, les classes moyennes ne sont pas davantage les moteurs attendus de la démocratisation du continent.

De leur fragilité découle une logique de fonctionnement individualiste. Individualisme renforcé par le fait que les individus qui constituent les classes moyennes n’ont pas développé de «conscience de classe», selon le mot de Dominique Darbon, professeur à l’Institut d’études politiques de Bordeaux, en France.

Les classes moyennes vont donc plutôt s’appuyer sur le clan au pouvoir.

«C’est très net par exemple au Burkina Faso, analyse Hélène Quénot-Suarez. Blaise Compaoré est au pouvoir depuis 1986, mais cette longévité ne se fait pas aux dépends des classes moyennes, car il y a la paix

Si ce pacte est rompu, en revanche, des troubles peuvent survenir, comme cela a été le cas dans ce pays mi-2011, dans la foulée du printemps arabe.

Croissance… et creusement des inégalités

«L’économie seule ne peut avoir d’effet vertueux sur l’amélioration des régimes politiques, assure Hélène Quénot-Suarez, prévenant: Pas d’afro-optimisme à tout crin! Nous sommes dans une période de transition, de naissance des classes moyennes, où les entreprises sont à la recherche de points de croissance et où on n’observe pas de meilleure redistribution de la richesse, ni d’investissement en faveur des plus pauvres.»

Dans un entretien au quotidien Le Monde du 22 novembre, le président de la BAD, Donald Kaberuka, va dans le même sens:

«La dynamique de croissance est lancée, mais elle n’est pas partagée et les inégalités s’accroissent, ce qui génère de fortes tensions sociales et politiques. L’exemple tunisien est là pour rappeler que la croissance économique ne se suffit pas à elle-même, qu’elle doit profiter à tous et ne pas être accaparée par une kleptocratie. A terme, ces inégalités multiplient les bidonvilles, empêchent la scolarisation et aggravent le chômage des jeunes

Les classes moyennes, africaines une catégorie encore trop fragile donc et hétérogène pour inverser la tendance politique sur le continent.

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Lu par 4057 Boytown

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