Que deviendra le Franc-CFA si l’euro s’écroule?

Lu par 295054 Boytown

D’une façon générale les recherches ont répertorié deux canaux de transmission de la crise européenne sur  les pays d’Afrique au Sud du Sahara.  La monnaie FCFA est particulièrement concernée.

Les différentes études sur les répercussions de  la crise financière ont démontré une certaine résistance des économies africaines. Depuis l’aggravation de la crise européenne, les pays africains ayant une étroite connections avec l’Europe font l’objet d’une attention particulière. D’une façon générale les recherches ont répertorié deux canaux de transmission de la crise européenne sur  les pays d’Afrique au Sud du Sahara :

  1. Les échanges commerciaux (exportations/importations)
  2. Les échanges financiers (les opérations de transactions et les transferts de rémittences de l’Europe vers la région.

Parmi les pays de l’Afrique au Sud du Sahara, un groupe de pays, ceux issus de la zone franc ayant un régime de taux de change fixe avec l’euro, présente une certaine complexité. Quel sera leur sort au cas où l’euro se disloquerait ? Comment devrait-on redéfinir la nouvelle parité entre l’euro et le franc CFA ?  Quelle politique de change la zone Franc-FCA devrait adopter pour se préparer contre un tel scenario ?

Dans cet article je m’efforce de simuler les conséquences d’un éclatement de la monnaie européenne en deux monnaies principales. D’un cotée on aurait une monnaie européenne autours de l’Allemagne, la Hollande, Finlande, Belgique, l’Irlande, l’Estonie et l’Autriche (mon second pays) et de l’autre une monnaie autour de la France, l’Italie, l’Espagne le Portugal. Les derniers développements de politique économique de la crise laissent croire que cette solution même si elle n’est chantée sur les toits, pourrait être envisageable.

Le cas de deux nouvelles monnaies européennes
Dans le cas où l’Euro se désintègre en deux monnaies, les autres monnaies internationales vont se redéfinir en fonction de la loi du  marché des changes. Le problème va résider dans les  monnaies en parité fixe avec l’euro. Le cas du Franc-CFA par exemple. Tout va dépendre d’où la France va atterrir. Le Franc-CFA pourrait :

  1. Maintenir le même système de taux de change fixe et la même parité avec la monnaie issue de l’euro-méditerranéen (France-Espagne-Italie-Portugal-Grèce et les autres) et du groupe germanique (Allemagne, Autriche, Hollande, Belgique Luxembourg et Estonie). Dans ce, cas quel que soit la monnaie européenne, l’on l’échangerait à 655Franc-CFA pour contre une  unité.
  2. Une autre option serait de continuer la parité fixe avec l’euro-méditerranéen et rétablir une relation de taux de change flexible avec le groupe germanique (euro du Nord). Cette solution ne serait pas une catastrophe pour les pays de la zone car dans le passée ils ont eu à commercer avec ses pays sous la base d’un taux de change flexible.
  3. La dernière option serait de rattacher par un taux de change flexible le Franc CFA à toutes les deux monnaies. Ce qui mettrait directement fin à la parité fixe avec l’euro.
  4. Pour des questions de politique régionales, les pays membres de la zone Franc pourraient continuer avec le Franc-CFA et  garder la structure de son fonctionnement(les Banques centrales).
  5. Dans le cas extrême ou tous les pays de l’euro retourneraient à leur monnaies originales, il va donc falloir revenir à une relation entre le Franc CFA et le « Nouveau Franc-Français ». Là  encore va se poser un problème de taux de change !  A  sa création,  1 euro faisait 6.55 FF. Après sa disparition, il faudrait redéfinir la relation entre l’euro et le  nouveau Franc-Français.  En s’appuyant sur  les fondamentaux actuels (chômage élevé-faible croissance- dette publique phénoménale) de l’économie française, l’équation  suivante pourrait s’appliquer :

     + 1Nouveau Franc Français= 4.55 euro au lieu 6.55

    + 1Nouveau Franc Français=455Franc-CFA en tenant compte du fait  qu’en 1999,  1Franc Français valait 100 FCFA

Taux de changes Sud Euro Nord Euro Nouveaux eurofranc
Franc-CFA Flexible* Flexible          –
Franc CFA Fixe Fixe          –
Franc-CFA Fixe Flexible          –
Franc-CFA Flexible* Fixe          –
Franc-CFA      –        –        Fixe/Flexible*

Tableau1 : Régime de taux de change entre le Franc CFA et les monnaies européenne. (*) Cette situation semble peu probable aussi longtemps que la France et les pays de la zone Franc-CFA opteront pour un système de taux de change fixe.
Le passage du Franc-CFA  a un régime de taux de change flexible

Le tableau ci-dessus présente les différentes situations qui peuvent se présenter au Franc-CFA au cas où la monnaie européenne viendrait à s’écrouler. Comme on peut le constater,  le passage du régime de taux de change fixe au flexible vis-à-vis soit du Sud Euro ou de la nouvelle monnaie française impliquerait un bouleversement économique de taille. Comment la zone Franc-CFA peut-elle se préparer à un tel revirement de situation ? Avant de passer à un taux de régime flexible, il faudrait que la zone Franc réunisse 4 conditions.

  1. Un marché local financier bien garni en devises extérieures
  2. Une politique d’intervention monétaire de la Banque centrale permettant d’acheter/vendre la monnaie locale en vue de contrôler son taux de change qui dépend du point (a).
  3. Une nouvelle réévaluation de la nouvelle parité qui dépend des fondamentaux de l’economie de la zone Franc.
  4. Un système pour évaluer les conséquences (risques) de ce changement de régime vis-à-vis de l’Etat et du secteur privé (entreprises/ménages/institutions financières)

Pour répondre aux critères du point a)et b) les deux banques centrales (BCEAO et BCEAC) pourraient créer une banque centrale commune qui aura en charge de la politique monétaire commune. La nouvelle banque centrale aura aussi la responsabilité de choisir « le premier taux de change » en partenariat avec les autres banques centrale. Le point d) est le plus crucial car longtemps les populations ont été habituées à « dealer » avec le système du taux de change fixe vis-à-vis de l’ancien euro. Le passage du fixe au flexible pourra se faire au travers d’un taux de change fixe que l’on pourrait laisser « varier » entre deux bandes. Cette pratique s’est avérée être la meilleure option, surtout si l’on prévoit que l’euro a de forte chance de s’écrouler.  Dans tous les cas, la zone Franc doit commencer à réfléchir sur son propre sort avant que tout ne se gâte en Europe.

Importante mise en garde: l’analyse que vous venez de lire est de nature préventive. Elle ne doit pas être utilisée pour affoler les marchés. Elle se base sur un rapport de la firme anglaise «capital economics » qui a envisagée différents scenarii s’offrant aux pays membres de l’euro dans le cas où la zone monétaire venait à se disloquer en deux monnaies principales. C’est dans une pareille circonstance que nous  avons réfléchi sur le sort du Franc-CFA.

lesafriques

Lu par 295054 Boytown

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